Red Dead

Could you place the body over here please?? Thank you ... Nurse! My instruments please ... Thank you. Could someone hand me my digital recorder please and start the camera ... Thank you.

I am ready to begin my postmortem examination now .....

Date - October 12th
Time - 11:30 am
Victim - Mr. Cincinnati Redleg
Time of Death - 4:59 pm on October 11th, 2012
Proximate Cause of Death - Choking

Starting with the head ... Maj. Gen. Dusty Custer ... commanding his fourth or fifth collapse in October ... the players have changed ... the teams have changed ... only one constant ... Dusty Baker as manager. The ligature marks around the neck have fiber from wristbands nearby and what looks like a toothpick poke ... yes ... it's definitely all the signature marks of a Dusty Baker play-off choke job. Bad luck or bad decisions is the only question left to determine how much of the culpability is contained in Baker's hands. Johnny Be Good going down with a strained oblique .. bad luck. Trotting Drew Stubbs out to centerfield every game in the series and the majority of the season ... bad decision. Preferring Scott Rolen to Smokin' Todd Frazier ever since Vottomatic returned to the line-up ... bad decision. Playing Agent Maxwell Smart on the Game 4 starter ... bad decision. Leaving Mike Leake in after the Giants scored a run in the 5th inning of Game 4 ... bad decision. Virtually every move in Game 5 ... bad decision. Leaving Mental Mat Latos in after 2 runs had scored and two more runners had reached base in the 5th inning of Game 5 ... bad decision. Calling not 1 but 2 hit and runs/steals in the bottom of the 5th inning with runners on 1st and 2nd - no outs - Hanigan at the plate which ended up as a strikeout/caught stealing double play ... bad decision.

Analysis: Dusty Custer manages a baseball game about as well as our government manages debt ... go check out the figures. For all of his New Age, SoCal cool vibe in his personal life, his baseball thinking is absolutely Victorian. On-base percentage .. doesn't matter to old Dusty .. just clogs up the bases .. which explains why Drew Stubbs and his .213 batting average and .277 on-base percentage was able to accumulate 586 plate appearances while Free Chris Heisey and his .265 batting average and .315 on-base percentage sat and watched the entire NLCS from the dugout. Baker's Victorian Age baseball thinking resulted in Ryan Hanigan  seeing his name appear in the 8th spot of the batting order until mid-September despite having one of the highest on-base percentages on the team. Catchers hit 8th and stop asking, thank you very much. Baker, an octogenarian himself, felt Scott Rolen deserved to play ahead of Smokin' Todd Frazier in September and October because he is Scott Rolen - he's been there before and earned the right to play in the post-season even if Smokin' Todd was better all-around (and should be ROY) than Rolen. Rolen repaid Dusty's misplaced faith with two errors - including a boot which lead to SF's winning run in game 3 - and a strikeout to end the Reds' season and Rolen's career. But much more importantly when Baker was required to think outside the box and manage each game like it was do or die, he missed many more times than he hit. His only great decision in the series was to throw Sudden Sam LeCure in immediate relief of an injured Johnny Be Good in game 1 before turning to Mental Mat for four innings. Game 4 and 5 gave Baker ample opportunities to reverse his Nero-like reputation and make the correct pitching change when things were going badly ... he failed. He kept Chapman, Broxton and Marshall in the pen until the Reds were down 6-3 .. why not go to Chapman in the 4th in an attempt to keep it a manageable 2-0 deficit. Any loyal readers think Posey goes yard off the Missle?? Yeah .. neither do I. Baker has yet to grasp the nature of playoff managing after 3000+ games, do any loyal readers expect his thinking to change in the future?? Yeah .. neither do I. So the Reds will continue doing what they have done .. winning in spite of Baker and failing when single game management becomes a huge factor in winning.

Now turning my attention to the arms .... with the exception of two innings ... the 5th inning of game 4 and 5 ... the arms looked great. 4 runs through the first 3 games of the series usually means 3 wins ... the relief corp - with the exception of Arredondo - also looked strong. Not much to see here ...

Analysis: The Reds pitchers have been the engine of the team all season. You can't really blame Mike Leake for being Mike Leake ... he was never expected to pitch in the NLDS and was then guarded like Col. Sander's secret recipe before his start in game 4. Sudden Sam LeCure was probably the Reds star arm of the series, with Mr. Arroyo and David Dewitt Bailey, Jr. trailing close behind. The top four of the rotation are set like Mt. Rushmore - Johnny Be Good, Dr. Bronson/Mr. Arroyo, Mental Mat Latos and David Dewitt Bailey, Jr. are carved in stone. The 5th spot has more intrigue than James Bond ... is it Mike Leake? Convert the Missile to an every 5th day launch schedule? Can Tony Cingrani step from the shadows and emerge as the last starter? Any way you look at it the Reds can't expect every starter to make every start during the regular season again. Baker's starters have never held up through two consecutive seasons (see Wood, Kerry and Prior, Mark and Volquez, Edison), not to mention Johnny Be Good and David Dewitt are very familiar with the DL. The Reds will need six or maybe seven pitchers to make it though 2013 and seem to be well positioned. The questions in the 'pen target the Missile ... what will his role be? He's had to be serviced the last two summers due to wing soreness ... can he hold up for a full season in either starting or relief roles? Broxton and Marshall are back for sure ... do the Reds re-sign the Phantom Ryan Madson?? Sudden Sam LeCure and JJ Hoover are sure things in middle relief. Of the twelve pitching spots up for discussion, nine (Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Broxton, Marshall, LeCure, Hoover) are already spoken for. Three seats are left on the bus for a combination of Leake, Simon, Arredondo, Bray, Masset, Cingrani, Ondrusek, Redmond, Villarreal and possibly Madson.

Moving to the bats and gloves ... lots of maple splinters surround the ligature marks on the throat ... some from Canada ... some from Texas ... a closer examination of the splinters shows the initials RISP listed up the side ... some bats look to have disappeared during the series ... the gloves show some E5 and E6 sprinkled in at key inopportune times ... It appears to be the 2nd most likely cause for the ligature marks ...

Analysis: The bats have been troubling all season ... here are the averages of the starters for the season: .337, .281, .275, .274, .252, .246, .245, .213 (I can't count Smokin' Todd Frazier's .273 here because Dusty Custer doesn't see him as a starter). The team average is .251 .. not very imposing. Not to mention the Reds have struggled to hit with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP) all season. Vottomatic was anything but (I'll hold my analysis of his playoff choke this season because of his injury, but he didn't perform all that well in 2010 either), Rolen bat was back at molasses speed, Cozart did little and Jay Bruce was Jay Bruce. BTW .. Bruce is like the ultimate tease who then complains about not getting the proper attention. Hey Jay ... win some games in the play-offs and then bash the fans. The crowd was electric for Game 3 .. sorry you got your tail feathers ruffled while you were getting bashed in Game 4 ... go win the game and the fans will cheer!! Strike out in the bottom of the 9th with two runners on .. they won't. The Reds offense was also handicapped by Dusty Custer's insistence on playing Drew Stubbs and Scott Rolen. Smokin' Todd Frazier was top 5 on the team in every major offensive category, and got one start after Rolen booted a ball in game 3 (he also committed fewer errors than Scott Rolen for the season so please, save the Rolen in for defense argument for 2008). Payroll is going to lock the Reds out of many free agent acquisitions this off-season. Currently the team has $71million committed to 11 players. Ludwick has a mutual option, Latos-Leake-Bailey-Stubbs are arbitration eligible ... you're looking at $18million or more to bring back those 5 guys .. and you still need 9 more players!!! The team you saw in the NLDS is very similar to the team you will see in April 2013 .. maybe Rolen retires and is replaced by Frazier and please God Stubbs is moved for anybody somebody. Barring some major, unforeseen trade .. what you see if what you're going to get .. and that should be scary to any Reds fan out there. What I thought was Dusty's Last Stand appears to be Dusty's Next Chance ... I'm glad I'm already out of hair!!

Have a great weekend!!

Why does work always get in the way of fun??

Apologies, apologies .... been so busy teaching and prepping my new American History class (not to mention my revamped Government class) the blog has suffered ... tragic to few and welcome to many I know. I'm back today hitting on as many topics as I can as quickly as I can. After many comparisons on Bow Tie Tuesday to Mills Lane ... Let's get it on!! (not to be confused with Marvin Gaye's "Let's get it on!")



***Editorial note: If you'd like to skip the political banter, please skip to the next four paragraphs***

The Presidential Debates begin tonight in Denver and here is something you won't hear either candidate say: "We need to raise taxes and reduce spending if we want to reduce or eliminate the deficit and begin to pay off our national debt." Instead you will hear something more along these lines: "We need to stick our head deeper into the sand (or bull manure - since it is the main ingredient in all politicians words) and - Barack Obama voice - raise taxes on the wealthy or - Mitt Romney voice - it would take me too long to go through all the math but trust me it will work ... to reduce the deficit." (In an effort of full disclosure, the aforementioned quote attributed to Mitt Romney was actually the words of his VP candidate Paul Ryan when asked to explain the Romney/Ryan Budget on Meet the Press Sunday morning. Great ... a budget which takes too long to go through the math ... don't we already have a budget like that?) The fact of the matter is the current federal financial picture is ugly ... like Lyle Lovett/Steve Buscemi ugly. This fiscal year, the federal government will spend $1.1 trillion to $1.3 trillion more than the federal government takes in revenue. Republicans will point to Obama, ignoring the fact the Republican-controlled House had to approve the budget before it could move to the Senate. Obama & the Democrats will point to George Bush and the financial/economic mess he inherited four years ago. Both treat mirrors like Medusa did and refuse to look at their reflection, fearful of the ugly reflection of blame looking back at Democrats and Republicans alike. The only way to reduce our deficit/debt is to increase the revenue the federal government receives and decrease the amount of money our government spends.

I'll deal with revenue first, and people can 'read my lips' to understand new revenue streams are needed for the federal government period. But simply raising taxes to reduce the deficit doesn't do anything to combat our national debt. Heck .. maybe we should start with getting the IRS to collect all the income tax they are currently supposed to collect!! It's estimated (by the IRS no less!) American's underpaid their income tax to the tune of $345 billion in 2011 .. or almost 20% of the $1.1 trillion of income tax collected in 2011!! Those uncollected income taxes would decrease the deficit by 31%!! Maybe the IRS should do its job correctly .. you know .. hold a government agency accountable the same way the government wants to hold me accountable as a teacher. An 80% percent is what grade in school?? C??

Those uncollected $345 billion dollars won't close the deficit alone. The federal income tax rates need to be raised, heresy to many people reading. I too would prefer to keep Uncle Sam's hands off my money, but years of overspending (and tacit approval by the American voters of overspending by the repeated election of deficit spenders to office in Washington, D.C.) means all American's now have to chip in to pay the piper. I can hear the groans and screams of many of my right-wing friends now ... "Raising taxes causes job losses and cripples the economy!!" ... even if historical data doesn't support such a statement. The non-partisan Congressional Research Service said last week, "Past increases in tax rates have had no negative effect on economic growth." The CRS then backed up their statement with the following stats: when the tax rate on the highest tax bracket was 84.8% (from 1950 to 1970) the economy grew on average 3.86%. Guess those job-creators didn't mind too much?? What's that you say?? Too long ago for relevance in 2012?? Fine .. let's look at more recent stats. From 1987-1992 (Reagan-Bush 41 years), the highest tax rate was 33.3% and economic growth averaged 2.3% .. Reaganomics at its best!! From 1993-2002 (Slick Willy in the house!!), economic growth averaged 3.68% which shows the economy doesn't care what you do with cigars and interns in the Oval Office. From 2003-2007 (Bush 43 to the economic meltdown), tax rates in the highest bracket were lowered to 35% and economic growth was 2.29%. The last four years have seen the economy crash (2008 and 2009) and begin to rebound (2010 and 2011 - although 2010's rebound was due more to massive government spending than private sector recovery). The Bush 43 Era tax cuts cost the federal government $500 billion in revenue a year currently and when added to the $345 uncollected would cut the deficit by 75% each year!!! Not to mention returning the Social Security tax rate to 6.2% (from it's current 4.2%) which would add additional monies to the federal treasury. Reversing the Bush 43 Era tax cuts to capital gains and dividend income would further reduce the deficit to the point where meaningful spending cuts make a difference.

Please notice I said make spending cuts!!! Our government spends way too much on all programs - social and military - and all programs need to be cut. Want an example?? Read here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/10/03/us-intel-citizens-terrorists/1609919/ ... of course they can't even tell you how much federal money was spent, with estimates ranging from $300 million to $1.4 billion. All to turn up no meaning evidence of terrorist activity ... thanks Batman ... I feel safer now!! Or you could look at the algae filled reflecting pool between the Washington Monument and the Lincoln Memorial to see $34 million of your tax dollars at work ... except they didn't work and the pool must now be repaired at further cost to the federal government. The first reflecting pool, built 90 years ago with far less advanced engineering and machines, worked much better and cost much less .. about $5 million in today's dollars. Or the $12 million to fix two escalators in the Washington, D.C. subway. Or the $6.8 billion to extend the D.C. subway. And that's before I start to get into military examples, like spending $66.7 billion to design the F22 Raptor fighter which has been grounded several times and has a faulty oxygen valve (which the designers were aware of during the design/building phase) which causes hypoxia in pilots under certain conditions, leading to several crashes and deaths. While it's easy to pick on people who receive government assistance - the infamous 47% apparently!! - our government has provided for the poor, the unemployed, the disabled and the elderly for over 100 years and neither party has shown any inclination to stop those benefits.

The Reds will discover tonight who they play in the first round of baseball's playoffs. I know I have villified cussed insulted questioned Dusty Baker's managerial skills this season, but there is no doubt he has the respect of the clubhouse and the players inside. I still don't understand Stubbs as an automatic selection in centerfield, Smokin' Todd Frazier, ROY, as a bench player or two wristbands and a toothpick. What I do know is how enjoyable this season has been to watch the Reds pretty much be dominant in their division (Thank you Lastros and sCrUBS!!). Can the Reds wake the echos of Chris Sabo & Eric Davis and make this a Red October? I would say undoubtedly if Bud Selig hadn't changed horses mid-stream and decided the higher seed would play on the road for the first two games of the Divisional Series. Selig's decision ranks right up there with Gary Bettman's choice to lock out the NHL players - raise your hand if you follow the NHL or even knew it existed - but isn't surprising when you look back at his track record (a tie in the All-Star game?!?!). Forcing the higher seeded team to play the first two games on the road makes about as much sense as batting Drew Stubbs in the lead-off spot ... oh wait ... that happened! The Reds will most likely head to San Francisco to play the Giants and hope they can split the two games before returning to Cincinnati. Just like 2010, the Reds could return home down 2-0 in the best of five series ... how did that series end??? NG!!! Johnny's gotta be good in game one and Mr. Arroyo needs to keep Dr. Bronson locked away for a night ... and the Reds hop a red-eye back to Cincinnati with a 2-0 lead!!! Pessimistic Scott has been abducted!!! Let's go RedLegs!!!

The Arsenal Gunners are back on the pitch around 2:45 today taking on Olympiakos in the Champions League. The Gunners are struggling to find goals despite playing some of the slickest passing football I have seen from them in years. I think it's the uniforms ... seriously!! Since changing the teams uniform crest the Gunners have won ........ nothing! Change the uniform, change stadium, lose all your winning karma. A win today would go a long way toward getting out of the group stages of the Champions competition and into the knock-out stages so I'm hoping for the best.

Okay .. heading to a meeting .. editing and responses later .. watch the debates tonight and report back .. yes I give homework!!!