9-11 is always going to carry a certain set of feelings for Americans, but I am perplexed as to its significance compared to other tragic events in American history. Maybe it's my perspective as someone who examines and holds history as a venerated subject for academicians which allows me to see 9-11 as another in a long series of transgressions against the United States, all of which should be remembered and honored!! Yes .. I"m getting into shout mode. Why isn't Pearl Harbor Day the subject of such public pronouncements of patriotism? How did 9-11 get to be christened "Patriots Day" when A) Patriots Day already exists in New England to celebrate the first battle of the American Revolution (you know .. when Patriots fought against the British at Lexington and Concord after being warned by Paul Revere??) and B) there was no greater outpouring of patriotism in the United States than after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor? From a sheer numbers perspective (I know .. very cold and callous), Pearl Harbor directly led to the deaths of 419,000+ American servicemen and women over the next four years. The attacks on 9-11?? Around 6000 military deaths over eleven years and counting. So Pearl Harbor lead to almost 70 times as many deaths in a much shorter period of time, yet it is fortunate to make the front page of the local newspapers on December 7th. Or what about the approximately 8,000 American's - North and South alike - who died near Manassas in the two Battles of Bull Run in four days of fighting? Shouldn't they be remembered too? Does Memorial Day cover all of the 842,000 soldiers, sailors and marines who died in defense of our country while the 3,000 killed on 9-11 get a completely separate day? It doesn't make any sense to me ... as cruel as some of you may take it to be. I have a theory though as to why 9-11 is held in higher esteem than these other events - it happened in New York City. The media - mainly based in New York City - automatically offers more coverage to events which occur in NYC, people who live in NYC automatically believe anything which happens in NYC is more important than events happening elsewhere, people who live in NYC automatically ignore the stench and grime all around them and people who live in NYC automatically think they are the center of the universe and self-important. If Pearl Harbor had occurred in New York Harbor, we'd all be off work on December 7th as a national holiday! Yes .. I know some of you may feel my view cheapens the lives lost on 9-11 and I still believe 9-11 to be the defining moment of my lifetime (for the changes it has brought on our society both good and bad). But I do not hold 9-11 as any more important than the lives lost in other highly tragic events in American history. Feel free to discuss!
Here is another reason not to believe the words which come out of a politician's mouth. From the great Gregg Easterbrock and this weeks Tuesday Morning Quarterback:
Bankrupt Logic: Organizations err, and individuals make mistakes. Trust me, I have plenty of experience! So perhaps vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan's boast that he ran a sub-three-hour marathon, when the actual time was more than four hours -- followed by his weird statement that the claim of track-star time was "the best of his recollection" -- was just a pair of dumb errors.
But there's so much difference between three-hour and four-hour marathons that this is as if a White House candidate boasted, "I won the World Series with a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth," then later said, "That was the best of my recollection. I meant to say that I play softball at picnics." When your columnist was on the dating scene, girls chased me everywhere. That's the best of my recollection, anyway.
But though to err is human, it is a warning sign when politicians make things up, hoping they will never be fact-checked. In his convention speech, Ryan gave considerable emphasis to his claim that 1.4 million businesses filed for bankruptcy in 2011, far more than the 330,000 that did so in the final year of the Jimmy Carter administration. Turns out 47,086, not 1.4 million, is the correct number for 2011. Ryan drastically overstated, in order to make things sound much worse than they are. But, his campaign asserted, since the correct figure for the final Carter year is 43,694, Ryan's basic point was right -- more business bankruptcies last year under Obama than in Carter's final year.
How could Ryan have been off by such a gigantic margin? There are 6 million businesses with employees in the United States. If 1.4 million had gone bankrupt in 2011, that would mean 23 percent of American businesses folded in a single year. Calamity! Every fourth store or office you passed would be boarded up. The actual figure represents 0.7 percent of American businesses closing last year. Ryan presents himself to the electorate as a leading expert in economic policy. Yet he was able to read the claim that 1.4 million businesses folded in a single year without saying to himself, "This number cannot possibly be right." An actual expert in economic policy would have known the 1.4 million figure was way off.
Now think about Ryan's claim that regardless, his basic point was on target. Since Carter's final year in office, the U.S. population has grown 36 percent. Other things being equal, we'd expect business bankruptcies to grow by about the same percentage. Instead, 2011 business bankruptcies were 7.8 percent higher than the final Carter year -- a decline, relative to population.
Because the population is rising, practically everything sets a record each year. In 2011, there were more haircuts and cheesesteaks than during Carter's final year, too! Consider the common statement "there are more people today with cancer than ever before," which like Ryan's corrected number is true but misleading. What's important is the rate of cancer -- is it up or down per capita? ( It's down.) In economics, per capita or GDP-adjusted comparisons are what count. Ryan presents himself to the nation as an expert on economic policy. An actual expert would have used adjusted numbers.
Now let's check the tables of the American Bankruptcy Institute. During the Ronald Reagan presidency, business bankruptcies averaged 67,845 per year. During the Obama presidency, business bankruptcies have averaged 54,975. Adjusting for population growth, business bankruptcies under Obama are 40 percent lower than they were under Reagan.
Probably in both cases, Reagan and Obama, the numbers are driven largely by economic trends beyond the control of the White House. But to the extent presidential policy matters, Reagan was a free-market conservative -- the sort of person who believes a failing business should be allowed to fail. Obama is a liberal -- the sort of person who believes a failing business should get government help. No surprise, then, that far more businesses failed annually under Reagan.
Paul Ryan has been a vice-presidential nominee for three weeks and has already told three outright whoppers (the marathon time which was over an hour off, the auto plant Obama closed that actually closed while Bush was President and now missing the number of business bankruptcies by 1.395 million ... time to fire a speech writer!!). Ryan's also the chairman of the House of Representatives Budget Committee and the author of the 'Path to Prosperity' budget proposals ... and you try to blame Obama from the huge deficits and mounting debt. Remember the President only signs the budgets passed by Congress, he doesn't make them himself. Hurts my heart to have to call out a fellow Miami man (Ryan '92, Kerr '95), but he needs to remember the Miami motto: Prodesse Quam Conspici. My Latin is rusty, but I was told by Phillip Shriver it means 'we are known for what we do, not what we claim'.
I guess I'll finish up with a little Bengal's recap from Monday night's debacle. The Bengals played the way Seal's face looks: rough! But I can recap why the Bengals perform like the Bengals with just two examples. Example 1: Down 17-10 in the 3rd quarter with a 4th and goal from the 1-yard line, Marvin Lewis orders the field goal unit onto the field for a safe three points. The 18 yard field goal was good - duh! - and the Bengals never scored again. Marvin forgot he seized momentum going into halftime by going for it on fourth and goal and watching the Law Firm - BenJarvus Green-Ellis - slam into the endzone. As soon as the field goal unit trotted out for a chippie, the team knew Marvin was scared to play for the win. Momentum evaporated like me from this blog during summer break! Example 2: Down 41-13 in the 4th quarter and facing a 4th and 2, Marvin ordered the punt team onto the field. He would have been more effective waving the white flag and screaming out, "I've quit on you guys this game!! It's over!!" Hey Marv, you need FOUR TD'S .... giving the other team the ball isn't going to get them for you. I know .. I know .. scoring four unanswered touchdowns in the 4th quarter is highly improbable, but at least show the team you are going to fight for 60 minutes instead of give up after 54. If you ever wonder why the Bengals never seem to out-tough teams, look no further than Marv.
In Reds news, the Cuban Missile is undergoing some late season maintenance due to a tired thruster. Please keep Dr. Timothy Kremchek away from the Missile!!! If Doc Hollywood examines the Missile, it's likely Aroldis will need an arm transplant in 14 days time.
Okay ... I'm out!! Talk tomorrow ...
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