I am ready to begin my postmortem examination now .....
Date - October 12th
Time - 11:30 am
Victim - Mr. Cincinnati Redleg
Time of Death - 4:59 pm on October 11th, 2012
Proximate Cause of Death - Choking
Starting with the head ... Maj. Gen. Dusty Custer ... commanding his fourth or fifth collapse in October ... the players have changed ... the teams have changed ... only one constant ... Dusty Baker as manager. The ligature marks around the neck have fiber from wristbands nearby and what looks like a toothpick poke ... yes ... it's definitely all the signature marks of a Dusty Baker play-off choke job. Bad luck or bad decisions is the only question left to determine how much of the culpability is contained in Baker's hands. Johnny Be Good going down with a strained oblique .. bad luck. Trotting Drew Stubbs out to centerfield every game in the series and the majority of the season ... bad decision. Preferring Scott Rolen to Smokin' Todd Frazier ever since Vottomatic returned to the line-up ... bad decision. Playing Agent Maxwell Smart on the Game 4 starter ... bad decision. Leaving Mike Leake in after the Giants scored a run in the 5th inning of Game 4 ... bad decision. Virtually every move in Game 5 ... bad decision. Leaving Mental Mat Latos in after 2 runs had scored and two more runners had reached base in the 5th inning of Game 5 ... bad decision. Calling not 1 but 2 hit and runs/steals in the bottom of the 5th inning with runners on 1st and 2nd - no outs - Hanigan at the plate which ended up as a strikeout/caught stealing double play ... bad decision.
Analysis: Dusty Custer manages a baseball game about as well as our government manages debt ... go check out the figures. For all of his New Age, SoCal cool vibe in his personal life, his baseball thinking is absolutely Victorian. On-base percentage .. doesn't matter to old Dusty .. just clogs up the bases .. which explains why Drew Stubbs and his .213 batting average and .277 on-base percentage was able to accumulate 586 plate appearances while Free Chris Heisey and his .265 batting average and .315 on-base percentage sat and watched the entire NLCS from the dugout. Baker's Victorian Age baseball thinking resulted in Ryan Hanigan seeing his name appear in the 8th spot of the batting order until mid-September despite having one of the highest on-base percentages on the team. Catchers hit 8th and stop asking, thank you very much. Baker, an octogenarian himself, felt Scott Rolen deserved to play ahead of Smokin' Todd Frazier in September and October because he is Scott Rolen - he's been there before and earned the right to play in the post-season even if Smokin' Todd was better all-around (and should be ROY) than Rolen. Rolen repaid Dusty's
Now turning my attention to the arms .... with the exception of two innings ... the 5th inning of game 4 and 5 ... the arms looked great. 4 runs through the first 3 games of the series usually means 3 wins ... the relief corp - with the exception of Arredondo - also looked strong. Not much to see here ...
Analysis: The Reds pitchers have been the engine of the team all season. You can't really blame Mike Leake for being Mike Leake ... he was never expected to pitch in the NLDS and was then guarded like Col. Sander's secret recipe before his start in game 4. Sudden Sam LeCure was probably the Reds star arm of the series, with Mr. Arroyo and David Dewitt Bailey, Jr. trailing close behind. The top four of the rotation are set like Mt. Rushmore - Johnny Be Good, Dr. Bronson/Mr. Arroyo, Mental Mat Latos and David Dewitt Bailey, Jr. are carved in stone. The 5th spot has more intrigue than James Bond ... is it Mike Leake? Convert the Missile to an every 5th day launch schedule? Can Tony Cingrani step from the shadows and emerge as the last starter? Any way you look at it the Reds can't expect every starter to make every start during the regular season again. Baker's starters have never held up through two consecutive seasons (see Wood, Kerry and Prior, Mark and Volquez, Edison), not to mention Johnny Be Good and David Dewitt are very familiar with the DL. The Reds will need six or maybe seven pitchers to make it though 2013 and seem to be well positioned. The questions in the 'pen target the Missile ... what will his role be? He's had to be serviced the last two summers due to wing soreness ... can he hold up for a full season in either starting or relief roles? Broxton and Marshall are back for sure ... do the Reds re-sign the Phantom Ryan Madson?? Sudden Sam LeCure and JJ Hoover are sure things in middle relief. Of the twelve pitching spots up for discussion, nine (Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Broxton, Marshall, LeCure, Hoover) are already spoken for. Three seats are left on the bus for a combination of Leake, Simon, Arredondo, Bray, Masset, Cingrani, Ondrusek, Redmond, Villarreal and possibly Madson.
Moving to the bats and gloves ... lots of maple splinters surround the ligature marks on the throat ... some from Canada ... some from Texas ... a closer examination of the splinters shows the initials RISP listed up the side ... some bats look to have disappeared during the series ... the gloves show some E5 and E6 sprinkled in at key inopportune times ... It appears to be the 2nd most likely cause for the ligature marks ...
Analysis: The bats have been troubling all season ... here are the averages of the starters for the season: .337, .281, .275, .274, .252, .246, .245, .213 (I can't count Smokin' Todd Frazier's .273 here because Dusty Custer doesn't see him as a starter). The team average is .251 .. not very imposing. Not to mention the Reds have struggled to hit with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP) all season. Vottomatic was anything but (I'll hold my analysis of his playoff
Have a great weekend!!





